Article from: July 25, 2025
The recent announcements from BMW and Toyota show that the battle for the future of clean mobility is far from over. While most of Europe has been betting heavily on electric vehicles (EVs), some manufacturers continue to believe that hydrogen fuel cell technology still has a card to play. But who will offer a better business model over the next 10 years and who will win the battle across Europe?
The two paths: EVs vs. Hydrogen
EVs have made enormous strides in the last decade. From niche luxury items, they’ve become mainstream, with models available across all price categories. Charging infrastructure is improving, and battery efficiency keeps growing. Hydrogen vehicles, by contrast, remain in early deployment stages, with only a few models on the market and a refueling network that is still very limited.
Yet, major automakers like Toyota and BMW argue that hydrogen can offer long-range, fast refueling, and a scalable solution especially for commercial transport. With hydrogen, a full tank takes only about five minutes, and the range often exceeds 600 km. That compares well to many EVs, especially in winter or in mountainous terrain where battery range can drop significantly.
The cost equation for end users
When it comes to the total cost of ownership, EVs currently have the upper hand. A typical compact EV in Europe costs between €25,000 and €40,000 before incentives. Charging at home costs roughly €0.05–€0.15 per kilometer depending on local electricity prices, while public fast charging can go up to €0.30 per kilometer.
By contrast, hydrogen vehicles like the Toyota Mirai or Hyundai Nexo still start around €60,000–€75,000. Refueling costs about €12–€15 per kilogram of hydrogen, and a full tank for 500–600 km can cost around €80–€100, or approximately €0.15–€0.20 per kilometer—higher than EVs and even some efficient hybrids or diesels.
The financial logic for private customers currently favors EVs. Lower running costs, fewer maintenance needs, and broader access to incentives and subsidies all work in their favor.
Infrastructure: Grid vs. Hydrogen Network
Europe has invested heavily in EV charging infrastructure, and while rural coverage is still patchy, the progress is tangible. The cost of expanding the grid is significant, but it’s a known process that utilities can handle.
Hydrogen, however, requires a completely new refueling network, safe transport and storage of compressed hydrogen, and the upstream infrastructure to produce it, preferably via green electrolysis. This makes the hydrogen rollout slower and more expensive.
Nonetheless, hydrogen could gain a foothold where battery electrification is difficult: in heavy-duty trucks, buses, trains, and long-distance logistics. For these segments, downtime and battery size are major challenges, and hydrogen’s quick refueling becomes a game-changer.
What does the EU Automotive Industry want?
Most European automakers, Volkswagen, Renault, Stellantisare heavily focused on EVs. Battery factories are being built, and entire product lines are being redesigned around electric platforms. The EU’s regulatory push, including CO2 fleet targets and the ban on new ICE cars after 2035, has further cemented the EV path.
Still, Germany and some industry groups are lobbying to keep hydrogen on the table. BMW’s latest collaboration with Toyota to revive the hydrogen fuel cell platform shows that the door is not closed.
Future Price Trends and Total Cost of Ownership
Looking ahead to 2035, the cost of EVs is expected to fall significantly. As battery technology improves and economies of scale take hold, compact EVs could drop to under €20,000 without subsidies. Battery lifespans are expected to increase, further reducing long-term ownership costs. Charging at home may remain the cheapest option, while smart grid integration could make electricity even more cost-efficient.
Hydrogen vehicles will likely get cheaper as manufacturing scales up and hydrogen production costs decline. However, experts estimate that fuel cell cars will still carry a price premium of €5,000–€10,000 compared to battery EVs unless mass production truly takes off. The cost of green hydrogen could fall from €10–15/kg today to €3–6/kg by 2035, which would help reduce the per-kilometer cost closer to EV levels. But even then, total cost of ownership will depend heavily on the density and affordability of the hydrogen refueling network.
What Hydrogen Needs to Do to Win
For hydrogen to compete with EVs in the next decade, several critical things must happen. First, the production of green hydrogen must scale dramatically to reduce costs and secure reliable supply. Second, Europe needs a coordinated plan to roll out hydrogen refueling stations, especially along transport corridors and in urban hubs. Third, automakers must commit to building affordable fuel cell vehicles and bring prices closer to EVs. Fourth, regulatory support will be crucial, both in subsidies and in carbon pricing that makes hydrogen more attractive for fleets.
Finally, hydrogen advocates must win over logistics operators, governments, and eventually private consumers with a clear value proposition: zero emissions, fast refueling, long range, and lifecycle cost competitiveness. Without these pillars, hydrogen may remain a niche player in a market increasingly dominated by electric batteries.
A Split Market Ahead
Over the next 10 years, EVs are likely to dominate personal mobility in Europe, driven by cost, availability, and infrastructure maturity. Hydrogen will grow more slowly, likely carving out a niche in commercial transport and hard-to-electrify sectors. Unless hydrogen vehicle prices drop drastically and refueling becomes widely available, EVs will remain the more financially attractive choice for the average driver.
But in technology, the story is never over. BMW and Toyota may be betting that hydrogen’s time will come, just not yet. And in Europe’s diversified transport future, there may be room for both.
